D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n yay\u0131nlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u201cGeli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde para politikas\u0131 aktar\u0131m\u0131na ili\u015fkin bulmacalar\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6zmek\u201d isimli \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikalar\u0131n\u0131n geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ekonomilerinde geli\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclke ekonomilerinden daha farkl\u0131 reaksiyonlara yol a\u00e7t\u0131\u011f\u0131 tespit edildi.<\/p>\n
Jongrim Ha, Dohan Kim, M. Ayhan K\u00f6se ve Eswar S. Prasad taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan makalede \u00f6zellikle geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ekonomilerinin bir\u00e7o\u011funda parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmayla birlikte san\u0131lan\u0131n aksine fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve \u00fclke para biriminde deval\u00fcasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtiliyor.<\/p>\n
Bu kavramlar literat\u00fcrde ‘fiyat bulmacas\u0131’ ve ‘d\u00f6viz kuru bulmacas\u0131’ olarak ge\u00e7iyor. Bu bulmacalar\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6ncelikli sebebi olarak, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ekonomilerinde para politikas\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik aktiviteyi ve finansal piyasalar\u0131 etkiledi\u011fi kanal\u0131n d\u00fczg\u00fcn \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmamas\u0131 veya bu \u00fclkelerde para politikas\u0131n\u0131n d\u00f6ng\u00fcsel bir yap\u0131da olmas\u0131 g\u00f6steriliyor. Ayr\u0131ca geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclke ekonomilerinde makroekonomik g\u00f6stergelerin olduk\u00e7a volatil olmas\u0131 standart modellerin bu \u00fclkelerdeki para politikas\u0131 etkilerini a\u00e7\u0131klamakta yetersiz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Fiyat bulmacas\u0131nda d\u00f6rt unsur <\/b><\/p>\n
Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmaya g\u00f6re d\u00f6viz kuru bulmacas\u0131ndan kurtulmak fiyat bulmacas\u0131n\u0131 ortadan kald\u0131r\u0131yor. Fiyat bulmacas\u0131n\u0131n ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131n\u0131n yani faiz art\u0131r\u0131m politikalar\u0131 sonras\u0131 fiyatlarda y\u00fckseli\u015f g\u00f6r\u00fclmesinin ise ba\u015fl\u0131ca d\u00f6rt sebebi var:<\/p>\n
1- Yanl\u0131\u015f te\u015fhis<\/strong><\/p>\n Gelecek enflasyon tahminlerini etkilemesi beklenen baz\u0131 de\u011fi\u015fkenlerin ekonomik modele eklenmemi\u015f olmas\u0131 fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 sorununa yol a\u00e7abiliyor. Sonu\u00e7 olarak, gelecek enflasyon beklentisine tepki olarak uygulanan parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n piyasada bir politika \u015foku olarak alg\u0131lanmas\u0131 durumuna var\u0131l\u0131yor ve bu da fiyat art\u0131\u015flar\u0131na sebep oluyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada buna konut piyasas\u0131ndaki fiyatlamalar \u00f6rnek olarak g\u00f6steriliyor. S\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131c\u0131 politika \u015foku konut fiyatlar\u0131nda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe sebep olurken kiralarda art\u0131\u015fa sebep olacak ve b\u00f6ylece fiyat bulmacas\u0131 olu\u015facakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ya da 2007-2008 krizi sonras\u0131 baz\u0131 geli\u015fmekte olan ekonomilerde parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma politikas\u0131n\u0131n pozitif enflasyonist etki yaratt\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00f6zel durumlar bu kategoride hesaba kat\u0131labilir.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 2- Para politikas\u0131 aktar\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n maliyet kanal\u0131<\/strong><\/p>\n Bu perspektife g\u00f6re parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6nemlerinde faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131yla birlikte y\u00fckselen \u00fcretim maliyetleri ve bunun sonucunda y\u00fckselen fiyatlar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan bak\u0131l\u0131r. Bu senaryoda faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131 enflasyonun y\u00fckselmesine sebep olacakt\u0131r. Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma arz kanal\u0131nda talep kanal\u0131ndan daha bask\u0131n etkiye sahipse bu, pozitif enflasyonist etkileri ortaya \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131r.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 3- D\u00f6viz kuru ge\u00e7i\u015fkenli\u011fi<\/strong><\/p>\n \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada, \u015fartl\u0131 d\u00f6viz kuru davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n standart varsay\u0131mlardan sapma e\u011filiminde oldu\u011fu ifade ediliyor. \u00d6rne\u011fin, pozitif i\u00e7 parasal \u015fok durumlar\u0131nda \u00fclke para birimi ya uzun vadede de\u011ferlenecektir ya da deval\u00fcasyona u\u011frayarak d\u00f6viz kuru bulmacas\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturacakt\u0131r.<\/p>\n Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalara g\u00f6re 49 geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkenin 37\u2019sinde faize ba\u011fl\u0131 pozitif \u015foklar sebebiyle d\u00f6viz kuru de\u011fer kayb\u0131na u\u011frad\u0131. Bu da geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerde d\u00f6viz kuru bulmacas\u0131n\u0131n olduk\u00e7a yayg\u0131n oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor. Ayr\u0131ca parasal \u015foklar\u0131n fiyatlar \u00fczerindeki etkisi ancak d\u00f6viz kuru kanal\u0131 dikkate al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda kayda de\u011fer boyuta ula\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n \u00c7al\u0131\u015fmada d\u00f6viz kuru davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki farkl\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n, \u00fclkelerin para politikas\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131na tepkilerinin heterojenle\u015fmesinde bir temel unsur oldu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131klan\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Var olan \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, geli\u015fmekte olan \u00fclkelerdeki d\u00f6viz kuru bulmacas\u0131n\u0131n olu\u015fumunu; bor\u00e7 finansman\u0131na y\u00f6nelik endi\u015feler, d\u00f6viz kuru seviyelerindeki kararl\u0131l\u0131k, tahvil ve para piyasalar\u0131 aras\u0131ndaki kopukluk ve para politikas\u0131 \u015foklar\u0131n\u0131 takiben likidite problemlerinin tepkileri gibi sebeplere ba\u011fl\u0131yor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n IMF’nin eski ba\u015fekonomisti Blanchard\u2019a g\u00f6re; reel faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f bor\u00e7 \u00fczerindeki temerr\u00fcd\u00fc art\u0131r\u0131yorsa, bu devlet bor\u00e7lanmas\u0131n\u0131n \u00e7ekicili\u011fini azaltarak deval\u00fcasyona sebep oluyor. Bu senaryoyla bor\u00e7 stoku ve risk primi y\u00fcksek olan \u00fclkelerde daha s\u0131k kar\u015f\u0131la\u015f\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n Bu gibi \u00fclkelerde enflasyonla m\u00fccadele para politikas\u0131yla sa\u011flanmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda reel faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f daha y\u00fcksek enflasyona ve deval\u00fcasyona sebep oluyor. Bu nedenle para politikas\u0131 yerine mali politika kullan\u0131m\u0131 daha do\u011fru bir se\u00e7enek olarak g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n 4- Belirsizlik<\/strong><\/p>\n Ekonomik fakt\u00f6rlere ba\u011fl\u0131 olmayan d\u0131\u015fsal \u015foklar sebebiyle meydana gelen fiyat bulmacalar\u0131ndan da bahsetmek m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n <\/p>\n Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131 Grubu Ba\u015fekonomist Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 ve Beklentiler Grubu Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Ayhan K\u00f6se’nin de aralar\u0131nda bulundu\u011fu ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma s\u00fcre\u00e7lerinin geli\u015fmi\u015f ve geli\u015fen \u00fclkelerde farkl\u0131 etkilere neden oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":100903,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4959,116,632,5836,305],"class_list":["post-100902","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-doviz-kuru","tag-fiyat","tag-para-politikasi","tag-sok","tag-ulke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100902","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=100902"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100902\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":100904,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/100902\/revisions\/100904"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/100903"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=100902"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=100902"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=100902"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}