TCMB\u2019nin faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmeme karar\u0131 ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 toplant\u0131 sonras\u0131 baz\u0131 kurumlar yeni analizlerini payla\u015ft\u0131. Goldman Sachs Ocak ay\u0131nda 100 baz puanl\u0131k indirim bekledi\u011fini belirtirken UBS ve Deutsche Bank Aral\u0131k\u2019ta indirim olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekti.<\/p>\n
Goldman Sachs bankan\u0131n beklendi\u011fi gibi faizleri de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini ancak y\u00f6nlendirmesinin daha g\u00fcvercin oldu\u011funu belirtti.<\/p>\n
Kurum analistleri Ba\u015fak Edizgil ve Clemens Grafe TCMB\u2019nin enflasyon beklentilerinin iyile\u015fti\u011fi s\u00f6ylemini hat\u0131rlatarak \u201cBankan\u0131n enflasyon konusundaki de\u011ferlendirmeleri tahminlerimizle paralel. S\u00f6zl\u00fc y\u00f6nlendirmedeki de\u011fi\u015fiklik de \u015fa\u015f\u0131rt\u0131c\u0131 de\u011fil.<\/p>\n
Ocak ay\u0131nda 100 baz puanl\u0131k ufak bir indirim beklentimizi koruyoruz. Y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminimiz TCMB\u2019nin tahmininde oldu\u011fu gibi y\u00fczde 44. Bu, Kas\u0131m ve Aral\u0131k\u2019ta y\u00fczde 1,5 ayl\u0131k enflasyon demek, bunun ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz.\u201d ifadelerine yer verdi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Notta TCMB\u2019nin indirimlere ba\u015flamadan \u00f6nce enflasyonun tahminlere indi\u011fini g\u00f6rmek isteyece\u011fi belirtildi. Bankan\u0131n gelecek \u00e7eyreklik d\u00f6nemlerde de k\u0131s\u0131tlay\u0131c\u0131 para politikas\u0131 duru\u015funu s\u00fcrd\u00fcrmesi gerekece\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n
UBS <\/b><\/p>\n
Stratejist Gyorgy Kovacs \u201cBankan\u0131n yeni y\u00f6nlendirmesi faiz indirimlerinin yak\u0131nda ba\u015flayabilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor. Karar sonras\u0131 yap\u0131lan de\u011ferlendirme, enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc konusunda daha yap\u0131c\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor. Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz indirimi bir olas\u0131l\u0131k ancak kesin g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
4 kritik ba\u015fl\u0131k olan Kas\u0131m enflasyon rakam\u0131, yeni asgari \u00fccret, enflasyon beklenti anketi ve 2025 b\u00fct\u00e7esi takip edilecek. E\u011fer gelen veriler, enflasyonun ve enflasyon beklentilerinin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131la\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterirse Merkez Bankas\u0131 Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda politika faizini 250 baz puan indirimle y\u00fczde 47,5\u2019e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeyi de\u011ferlendirebilir\u201d ifadelerine yer verdi.<\/p>\n
Deutsche Bank <\/b><\/p>\n
Ekonomist Yi\u011fit \u00d6nay ve stratejisti Christian Wietoska bankan\u0131n son 2 ayda beklenenden y\u00fcksek gelen enflasyon rakam\u0131 sonras\u0131 faiz oran\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmedi\u011fini ancak bankan\u0131n g\u00fcvercin sinyaller verdi\u011fini belirtti. Notta Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda indirim i\u00e7in kap\u0131n\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Gelecek enflasyon verileri ve para biriminin seyrinin yak\u0131ndan takip edilecek fakt\u00f6rler olaca\u011f\u0131 ifade edilen raporda \u201cTCMB\u2019nin indirimlere Aral\u0131k\u2019ta ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek ihtimal oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyoruz. Ancak enflasyonda yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc s\u00fcrpriz veya TL\u2019de olu\u015facak bask\u0131, indirimi daha sonraki aylara \u00f6teleyebilir.\u201d dendi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Goldman Sachs, UBS ve Deutsche Bank TCMB faiz karar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan beklentilerini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":102365,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[4335,400,44,1131,448],"class_list":["post-102364","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-aralik","tag-bank","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz","tag-indirim"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102364","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=102364"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102364\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":102366,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/102364\/revisions\/102366"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/102365"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=102364"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=102364"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=102364"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}