{"id":10615,"date":"2024-06-01T05:48:06","date_gmt":"2024-06-01T05:48:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=10615"},"modified":"2024-06-01T05:48:06","modified_gmt":"2024-06-01T05:48:06","slug":"turkiye-ilk-ceyrekte-tuketimle-buyudu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2024\/06\/01\/turkiye-ilk-ceyrekte-tuketimle-buyudu\/","title":{"rendered":"T\u00fcrkiye ilk \u00e7eyrekte t\u00fcketimle b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde t\u00fcketimin etkisiyle y\u00fczde 5,7 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydetti.<\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu’nun (T\u00dc\u0130K) a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131\u011f\u0131 verilere g\u00f6re y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde \u00e7eyreklik b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise y\u00fczde 2,4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131nda t\u00fcketim \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 7,3 art\u0131\u015f kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Devletin nihai t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,9, gayrisafi sabit sermaye olu\u015fumu ise y\u00fczde 10,3 artt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Mal ve hizmet ihracat\u0131, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re zincirlenmi\u015f hacim endeksi olarak y\u00fczde 4 artarken ithalat\u0131 y\u00fczde 3,1 azald\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Bunlar\u0131n ard\u0131ndan Bloomberg HT taraf\u0131ndan yap\u0131lan hesaplamalara g\u00f6re, t\u00fcketim harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye ilk \u00e7eyrekte 5,5 puan katk\u0131 sa\u011flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc. Kamu harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n 0,5 puan, yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131n ise 2,6 puan katk\u0131 verdi\u011fi ilk \u00e7eyrekte net ihracat taraf\u0131ndan da art\u0131 1,6 puan geldi.<\/p>\n

B\u00f6ylelikle net ihracat bir s\u00fcre sonra ithalat taraf\u0131nda ya\u015fanan gerilemenin etkisiyle pozitife d\u00f6nd\u00fc.<\/p>\n

B\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi y\u00fczde 5,7’ye \u00e7eken ba\u015fl\u0131k eksi 4,4 puanla stoklar oldu.<\/p>\n

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Sekt\u00f6rlerde in\u015faat dikkat \u00e7ekti<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\u0130lk \u00e7eyrek performans\u0131 bak\u0131m\u0131ndan T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde en \u00e7ok dikkat \u00e7eken sekt\u00f6r in\u015faat oldu. \u0130n\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fc y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 11,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Tar\u0131mda y\u00fczde 4,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcme ile son d\u00f6nemlerin en iyi \u00e7eyre\u011fi ya\u015fand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Sanayi taraf\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemde y\u00fczde 4,9 olarak kaydedildi. Hizmetler taraf\u0131nda ise b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u00fczde 4,3 oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

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\u0130lk \u00e7eyrekte 285,6 milyar dolarl\u0131k ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fck<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\u00dcretim y\u00f6ntemiyle Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la tahmini, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n birinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde cari fiyatlarla bir \u00f6nceki y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 \u00e7eyre\u011fine g\u00f6re y\u00fczde 90 artarak 8,82 trilyon TL oldu. GSYH’nin birinci \u00e7eyrek de\u011feri cari fiyatlarla dolar baz\u0131nda 285,6 milyar dolar olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mlarda in\u015faat ivmelendi, makine-te\u00e7hizat ivme kaybetti<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Yat\u0131r\u0131mlara bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda in\u015faat ve makine-te\u00e7hizat aras\u0131ndaki makas dikkat \u00e7ekti. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 9,6 oldu. B\u00f6ylelikle baz etkisiyle y\u00fcksek gelen 2021’in ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finden bu yana in\u015faat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131nda en h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

Makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131ndaki b\u00fcy\u00fcme ise 2024’\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 11,9’a geriledi. B\u00f6ylelikle ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finden sonra, 2024’\u00fcn ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde de makine-te\u00e7hizat yat\u0131r\u0131mlar\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesinin h\u0131z kesti\u011fi izlendi.<\/p>\n

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Beklenti y\u00fczde 5,6 olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin beklentisi ilk \u00e7eyrekte b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 5,6 olmas\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi.<\/p>\n

Ankette en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmini veren kurum birinci \u00e7eyrekte y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 4,5; en y\u00fcksek tahmini veren kurum y\u00fczde 6,9 b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekledi\u011fini belirtmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 4 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi y\u00fczde 5’i a\u015fan b\u00fcy\u00fcme performans\u0131n\u0131 son olarak 2023 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyre\u011finde g\u00f6stermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT anketinde \u00e7eyreklik bazda b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 1,5 olmu\u015ftu. D\u00f6nemsel olarak en y\u00fcksek beklenti y\u00fczde 4,2 olurken, en d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck tahmin y\u00fczde 0,4 olarak kaydedilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

\u00d6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergeler b\u00fcy\u00fcmeyi yine t\u00fcketimin s\u00fcr\u00fckledi\u011fini g\u00f6stermi\u015fti<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye \u0130statistik Kurumu’nun ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin sanayi \u00fcretim ve perakende sat\u0131\u015flar istatistiklerinden yap\u0131lan hesaplamaya g\u00f6re t\u00fcketim ile \u00fcretim aras\u0131nda t\u00fcketim lehine \u00f6nemli bir makas olu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

Bloomberg HT’nin hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re ar\u0131nd\u0131r\u0131lmam\u0131\u015f verilere g\u00f6re sanayi \u00fcretimi ilk \u00e7eyrekte y\u00fczde 5,3 artt\u0131. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n perakende sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131ndaki art\u0131\u015f y\u00fczde 19,2 olarak kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

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Bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyrekte de T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisini t\u00fcketim s\u00fcr\u00fcklemi\u015fti. T\u00dc\u0130K’in verilerine g\u00f6re T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n son \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcrken t\u00fcketimin b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 6,7 puan olmu\u015ftu. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n net ihracattan 0,6 puan, stoklardan ise 5 puan olumsuz etki gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

TCMB’de ilk \u00e7eyrekte t\u00fcketime dikkat \u00e7ekmi\u015fti<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinde ilk \u00e7eyrekte talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) enflasyon raporunda da dikkat \u00e7ekilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Raporda 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde yurt i\u00e7i talepteki diren\u00e7li seyrin s\u00fcrd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc ve perakende sat\u0131\u015f ve ticaret sat\u0131\u015f hacim endeksleri ile kartla yap\u0131lan harcamalar\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyrekte t\u00fcketimde ivmelenmeye i\u015faret etti\u011fi belirtilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bayram tatilinin bir miktar belirsizlik olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ifade eden TCMB ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fe ili\u015fkin \u00f6nc\u00fc g\u00f6stergelerin ise i\u00e7 talepte ilk \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla daha \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm ima etti\u011fini vurgulam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

TCMB’ye g\u00f6re Nisan ay\u0131nda kartla yap\u0131lan harcamalar reel bazda zay\u0131flarken, imalat sanayi firmalar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fe y\u00f6nelik yurt i\u00e7i sipari\u015f beklentileri de, \u00e7eyreklik bazda gerilemeye devam etti. \u00d6te yandan, t\u00fcketim mallar\u0131 ithalat\u0131 Nisan ay\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f kaydederek bu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmden ayr\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

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S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fmaya ra\u011fmen b\u00fcy\u00fcme<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Piyasada s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fan para politikas\u0131na ra\u011fmen 31 Mart’ta ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen yerel se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilen talebin birinci \u00e7eyrekteki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131 verdi\u011fi belirtiliyordu.<\/p>\n

Genel beklenti y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131nda i\u00e7 t\u00fcketimin yava\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde. Ekonomi y\u00f6netimi de y\u0131l\u0131n kalan\u0131nda “daha dengeli bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonu” g\u00f6r\u00fclece\u011fini s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

H\u00fck\u00fcmet ge\u00e7en sene yap\u0131lan genel se\u00e7imlerin ard\u0131ndan uygulamaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 ekonomi program\u0131 \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek ve artan i\u00e7 talebi yava\u015flatmak i\u00e7in \u00f6nlemler ald\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en sene Haziran ay\u0131ndan beri politika faizi 41,5 puan y\u00fckseltildi.<\/p>\n

\u0130hracat\u0131 artt\u0131rarak ve i\u00e7 talebin k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi ithalat\u0131 azaltarak cari a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 daraltmay\u0131 ve b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin kompozisyonunda de\u011fi\u015fim yaratmay\u0131 hedefleyen ekonomi y\u00f6netimi bu geli\u015fmelerin enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcne de katk\u0131 sa\u011flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyordu.<\/p>\n\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisi 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde, devam eden parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmaya ra\u011fmen yerel se\u00e7im \u00f6ncesi h\u0131zlanan hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketimi etkisiyle h\u0131zl\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcd\u00fc. Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcme y\u00fczde 5,7 olarak beklentilerin s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 da olsa \u00fczerinde…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":10616,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[86,767,445,766,768],"class_list":["post-10615","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-buyume","tag-ceyreginde","tag-ceyrek","tag-tuketim","tag-yuzde-4"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10615","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=10615"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10615\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10623,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10615\/revisions\/10623"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/10616"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=10615"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=10615"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=10615"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}