{"id":50644,"date":"2024-06-20T12:00:08","date_gmt":"2024-06-20T12:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=50644"},"modified":"2024-06-20T12:00:08","modified_gmt":"2024-06-20T12:00:08","slug":"ifo-almanyanin-buyume-tahminini-iki-katina-cikardi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2024\/06\/20\/ifo-almanyanin-buyume-tahminini-iki-katina-cikardi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ifo, Almanya’n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini iki kat\u0131na \u00e7\u0131kard\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Merkezi M\u00fcnih’te bulunan Ifo, Almanya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin ilkbaharda payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2024-2025’i kapsayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde g\u00fcncelleme yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Buna g\u00f6re, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini y\u00fczde 0,2’den y\u00fczde 0,4\u2019e y\u00fckseltilirken, 2025 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 1,5 olarak korundu.<\/p>\n

\u00dclkede ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5,9 ve may\u0131sta y\u00fczde 2,4 olan enflasyonun bu y\u0131l ortalama y\u00fczde 2,2 olmas\u0131, 2025’te de y\u00fczde 1,7\u2019ye kadar d\u00fc\u015fmesi bekleniyor. Ayr\u0131ca, faiz oran\u0131 ve enflasyonun kademeli olarak gev\u015femesiyle \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,3 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 1,8 artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

\u00dclkede i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re hafif artarak 2,6 milyondan 2,74 milyona y\u00fckselece\u011fi ve gelecek y\u0131l 2,61 milyona d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin ediliyor. \u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n 2024’te y\u00fczde 5,9 ve 2025’te 5,6 olmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130stihdam edilen ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 45,93 milyondan 46,07 milyona ve 2025\u2019te 46,23 milyona y\u00fckselmesi bekleniyor.<\/p>\n

Ifo, Alman kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 87,4 milyar euro olan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, bu y\u0131l 72,8 milyar euroya ve gelecek y\u0131l 54,4 milyar euroya gerileyece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 280,3 milyar euro olan \u00fclkenin cari i\u015flemler fazlas\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 312,4 milyar euroya y\u00fckselece\u011fini tahmin eden Enstit\u00fc, s\u00f6z konusu fazlan\u0131n 2025’te 305,7 milyar euroya inmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Ifo \u0130\u015f D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve Ekonomik Tahmin M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Timo Wollmershaeuser, konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, \u201cAlman ekonomisinde \u015fu anda yeni bir umut do\u011fuyor. Alman ekonomisi yava\u015f yava\u015f krizden \u00e7\u0131kmaya \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. 2024’\u00fcn ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n, ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde daha iyi olmas\u0131 bekleniyor.\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Wollmershaeuser, bu y\u0131l\u0131n geri kalan\u0131nda, hane halk\u0131n\u0131n sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcn\u00fcn muhtemelen daha da artaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131 normalle\u015ftik\u00e7e makroekonomik toparlanman\u0131n h\u0131z kazanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, k\u00fcresel mal ticareti ve k\u00fcresel sanayi \u00fcretiminin, \u00f6zellikle y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci yar\u0131s\u0131ndan itibaren toparlanmaya devam edece\u011fini kaydetti.<\/p>\n

Bu durumun sanayile\u015fmi\u015f \u00fclkelerde para politikas\u0131n\u0131n gev\u015fetilmesiyle desteklenen yat\u0131r\u0131mlardaki kademeli art\u0131\u015ftan da kaynaklanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 vurgulayan Wollmershaeuser, Ifo\u2019nun Avrupa Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (AMB) bu y\u0131l iki faiz indirimi daha yapmas\u0131n\u0131 bekledi\u011fini aktard\u0131.<\/p>\n

Alman ekonomisi b\u00fcy\u00fcme de zorlan\u0131yor<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Alman ekonomisi, 2 y\u0131ll\u0131k durgunluk d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde y\u00fczde 0,2 b\u00fcy\u00fcme kaydederek, teknik resesyona girmekten k\u0131l pay\u0131 kurtulmu\u015ftu.<\/p>\n

\u00dclke ekonomisi, \u00f6zellikle b\u00f6lgedeki di\u011fer \u00fclkelere oranla daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir rol oynayan imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki kal\u0131c\u0131 zay\u0131fl\u0131k nedeniyle k\u0131r\u0131lganl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyor.<\/p>\n

Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmeti, 2024 i\u00e7in daha \u00f6nce y\u00fczde 0,2 olarak a\u00e7\u0131klanan resmi b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini, 24 Nisan’da “hafif konjonkt\u00fcrel iyile\u015fme i\u015faretleriyle” revize ederek y\u00fczde 0,3’e y\u00fckseltmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Almanya’n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (Ifo), \u00fclkenin bu y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini, enflasyonun d\u00fc\u015fmesine ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak t\u00fcketici harcamalar\u0131n\u0131n normalle\u015fmesi nedeniyle yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":50645,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2198,1265,86,1604,305],"class_list":["post-50644","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-2198","tag-alman","tag-buyume","tag-ekonomisi","tag-ulke"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50644","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=50644"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50644\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":50646,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/50644\/revisions\/50646"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/50645"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=50644"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=50644"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=50644"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}