{"id":75382,"date":"2024-09-03T05:24:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-03T05:24:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=75382"},"modified":"2024-09-03T05:24:06","modified_gmt":"2024-09-03T05:24:06","slug":"ikinci-ceyrek-milli-gelir-verileri-iktisadi-faaliyetin-ana-egilimi-hakkinda-ne-soyluyor","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2024\/09\/03\/ikinci-ceyrek-milli-gelir-verileri-iktisadi-faaliyetin-ana-egilimi-hakkinda-ne-soyluyor\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek milli gelir verileri iktisadi faaliyetin ana e\u011filimi hakk\u0131nda ne s\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?"},"content":{"rendered":"
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T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n (TCMB) Merkezin G\u00fcncesi isimli blog sayfas\u0131nda “\u0130kinci \u00c7eyrek Milli Gelir Verileri \u0130ktisadi Faaliyetin Ana E\u011filimi Hakk\u0131nda Ne S\u00f6yl\u00fcyor?” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 bir analize yer verildi.<\/p>\n

TCMB ekonomisti Abdullah Kazdal ve TCMB’de ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapan Ece Ta\u015fan, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki iktisadi faaliyet ana e\u011filimini milli gelir verileri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde harcama ve \u00fcretim y\u00f6n\u00fcnden inceledi.<\/p>\n

Analizde, “B\u00fcy\u00fcme kompozisyonu, gerek b\u00fcy\u00fcmenin s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011fi gerekse dezenflasyon s\u00fcreci a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli bir unsur olarak \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kmakta. \u00d6zellikle salg\u0131n sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, b\u00fcy\u00fcme oranlar\u0131 g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek olurken \u00e7o\u011funlukla i\u00e7 talep kaynakl\u0131 ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmi\u015fti. T\u00dc\u0130K taraf\u0131ndan 2024 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011fine ili\u015fkin a\u00e7\u0131klanan Gayrisafi Yurt \u0130\u00e7i Has\u0131la (GSYH) verilerine g\u00f6re ise, sabit fiyatlarla milli gelir bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 0,1, ge\u00e7en y\u0131l\u0131n ayn\u0131 d\u00f6nemine k\u0131yasla y\u00fczde 2,5 oran\u0131nda artt\u0131. Revize edilen verilere g\u00f6re, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde bu oranlar s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 1,4 ve y\u00fczde 5,3 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. Dolay\u0131s\u0131yla y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda milli gelir y\u0131ll\u0131k bazda y\u00fczde 3,8 oran\u0131nda art\u0131\u015f kaydetti. S\u00f6z konusu veriler, iktisadi faaliyetin y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde dezenflasyon patikas\u0131yla uyumlu olarak yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermekte. Bu yaz\u0131da, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131ndaki iktisadi faaliyet ana e\u011filimini milli gelir verileri \u00e7er\u00e7evesinde harcama ve \u00fcretim y\u00f6n\u00fcnden inceliyoruz” ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Harcama y\u00f6n\u00fcnden geli\u015fmelere dikkat \u00e7ekilerek \u015fu bilgiler verildi:<\/p>\n

“Y\u0131l\u0131n ilk \u00e7eyre\u011finde b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye en y\u00fcksek katk\u0131 nihai yurt i\u00e7i talepten geldi. S\u00f6z konusu katk\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimdeki art\u0131\u015ftan kaynaklan\u0131rken, bunda \u00fccret art\u0131\u015flar\u0131, firmalar\u0131n ilave kampanyalar\u0131 ve \u00f6ne \u00e7ekilen talebin etkisi de g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.[1] \u0130kinci \u00e7eyrekte ise parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n gecikmeli etkilerinin devreye girmesiyle birlikte nihai yurt i\u00e7i talepte belirgin bir yava\u015flama g\u00f6zlemliyoruz. Nitekim bu d\u00f6nemde, stoklarla birlikte de\u011ferlendirildi\u011finde yurt i\u00e7i talebin y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye katk\u0131s\u0131 1,2 puana gerilerken d\u0131\u015f dengedeki olumlu g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcmle beraber net ihracat da y\u0131ll\u0131k b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye pozitif katk\u0131 verdi (Grafik 1). Bu \u00e7er\u00e7evede, y\u0131l\u0131n ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcme bile\u015fenlerinin giderek daha dengelenen bir talep g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fcne i\u015faret etti\u011fini de\u011ferlendiriyoruz”<\/p>\n

Merkezin G\u00fcncesi<\/b><\/p>\n

Merkezin G\u00fcncesi, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131 b\u00fcnyesindeki ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 ve uzmanlar\u0131n analiz ve yorumlar\u0131n\u0131 i\u00e7eren bir blog olarak kullan\u0131l\u0131yor.<\/p>\n

Blogda, makroekonomi ve merkez bankac\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 konular\u0131nda yaz\u0131lar ile Bankan\u0131n resmi ileti\u015fim ara\u00e7lar\u0131 kaynak al\u0131narak haz\u0131rlanm\u0131\u015f metinlere yer veriliyor.<\/p>\n

Blogda yer verilen g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler yazarlara ait olurken, bu g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015fler, T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n veya \u00e7al\u0131\u015fanlar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015flerini temsil etmeyebiliyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (TCMB) blog sayfas\u0131 Merkezin G\u00fcncesi’nde banka ekonomistlerinden Abdullah Kazdal ve TCMB’de ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 olarak g\u00f6rev yapan Ece Ta\u015fan’\u0131n kaleme ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 “\u0130kinci \u00e7eyrek milli gelir verileri iktisadi faaliyetin ana…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":75383,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[86,406,4325],"class_list":["post-75382","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-buyume","tag-merkez","tag-milli-gelir"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75382","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=75382"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75382\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":75384,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/75382\/revisions\/75384"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/75383"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=75382"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=75382"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=75382"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}