{"id":76066,"date":"2024-09-05T11:12:05","date_gmt":"2024-09-05T11:12:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=76066"},"modified":"2024-09-05T11:12:05","modified_gmt":"2024-09-05T11:12:05","slug":"ekonomistler-ovp-toplantisini-nasil-karsiladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2024\/09\/05\/ekonomistler-ovp-toplantisini-nasil-karsiladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Ekonomistler OVP toplant\u0131s\u0131n\u0131 nas\u0131l kar\u015f\u0131lad\u0131?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Yard\u0131mc\u0131s\u0131 Cevdet Y\u0131lmaz 2025-2027 d\u00f6nemine ili\u015fkin enflasyon, istihdam, b\u00fcy\u00fcme gibi temel makro ekonomik hedeflerin yer ald\u0131\u011f\u0131 Orta Vadeli Program kamuoyuna a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re, 2024 y\u0131l\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 4&#8217;ten y\u00fczde 3,5&#8217;a \u00e7ekilirken enflasyon beklentisi yine bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 33&#8217;ten y\u00fczde 41,5&#8217;e \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131ld\u0131. Cari a\u00e7\u0131k ise bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 3,1&#8217;den y\u00fczde 1,7&#8217;e d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<p>Bloomberg HT\u2019ye konuk olan ekonomistler 2025-2027 d\u00f6nemini i\u00e7eren Orta Vadeli Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OVP) de\u011ferlendirdi.<\/p>\n<p><b><strong>\u00dcn\u00fcvar: OVP bizim tahmin setimizde \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yaratmad\u0131<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n<p>TSKB Ba\u015fekonomisti ve Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Burcu \u00dcn\u00fcvar, b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gelmesinin \u201cenflasyonla m\u00fccadeleden \u00f6d\u00fcn verilmeyece\u011fi\u201d \u015feklinde yorumlanabilece\u011fini s\u00f6yledi. \u00dcn\u00fcvar, \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fcmenin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 gelmesi para politikas\u0131nda enflasyonla m\u00fccadeleden vazge\u00e7ilmeyece\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki bizim tahminimizle uyumlu. E\u011fer bu OVP\u2019den politika \u00e7er\u00e7evesiyle alakal\u0131 olarak bir beklenti \u00e7\u0131ksayd\u0131, bu son derece negatif olurdu. Hala enflasyonla m\u00fccadelenin en \u00f6nemli nokta oldu\u011funu s\u00f6yl\u00fcyoruz.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>2025 enflasyon tahminlerinin biraz daha yukar\u0131da oldu\u011funu ve bunu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmek i\u00e7in OVP kaynakl\u0131 bir gerek\u00e7elerinin olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yleyen \u00dcn\u00fcvar, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki d\u00f6nemde maliye politikas\u0131n\u0131 izlemeye devam edeceklerini ve OVP\u2019nin tahmin setlerinde bak\u0131\u015f a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131 olarak \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck bir de\u011fi\u015fiklik yaratmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti. \u00dcn\u00fcvar \u015f\u00f6yle devam etti:<\/p>\n<p>\u201cTablolar incelendi\u011finde i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131l\u0131m oran\u0131n\u0131n artmas\u0131 bekleniyor. Bu istedi\u011fimiz bir \u015fey de. Hem i\u015fg\u00fcc\u00fcne kat\u0131lma oran\u0131n\u0131z artacak hem de toplam talebi bask\u0131layacaks\u0131n\u0131z. Bu asl\u0131nda son derece do\u011fal bir sonu\u00e7. Bizim arzu etti\u011fimiz ge\u00e7ici de\u011fil, nitelikli istihdam.\u201d<\/p>\n<p><b><strong>G\u00f6nen\u00e7ler: Revizyonlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda beklentimin <b>alt\u0131nda<\/b> kald\u0131<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ba\u015fekonomisti Serkan G\u00f6nen\u00e7ler, \u201c2025 y\u0131l\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve enflasyon tahminlerine yap\u0131lacak revizyon daha \u00f6nemli \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc ekonomi y\u00f6netiminin hedeflerine ili\u015fkin bize bir sinyal veriyor olacak demi\u015ftik. Revizyonlara bakt\u0131\u011f\u0131mda beklentimin alt\u0131nda kald\u0131.\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6te yandan, b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedeflerinden vazge\u00e7ilmedi\u011fini g\u00f6rd\u00fcklerini s\u00f6yleyen G\u00f6nen\u00e7ler \u201cVergilemede adalet ve etkinli\u011fin nas\u0131l sa\u011flanaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131, yani uygulamada nas\u0131l davran\u0131laca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 bilmiyoruz.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<p><b><strong>\u015eekerci: Merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7esinde yap\u0131\u015fkan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz baz\u0131 harcamalar var<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n<p>\u0130\u015f Portf\u00f6y Y\u00f6netimi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc ve Ekonomist Hande \u015eekerci, b\u00fcy\u00fcme hedefinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 \u00e7ekilmesini beklediklerini kaydederek, \u201cBizim kendi beklentilerimiz ve Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bir s\u00fcredir ortaya koydu\u011fu \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclerle birlikte d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fc\u011f\u00fcm\u00fcz zaman, 2025 y\u0131l\u0131nda y\u00fczde 4\u2019l\u00fck g\u00f6rece y\u00fcksek diyebilece\u011fim bir b\u00fcy\u00fcme oran\u0131n\u0131n yakalanmas\u0131 ve e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak enflasyonun \u00e7ok h\u0131zl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00fczde 17,5\u2019a kadar d\u00fc\u015fmesini biraz zor buluyorum. \u00c7ok m\u00fcmk\u00fcn de\u011fil gibi g\u00f6z\u00fck\u00fcyor.\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<p>Daha somut ad\u0131mlar\u0131n a\u00e7\u0131klanmas\u0131n\u0131n piyasaya yol g\u00f6stermesi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan \u00f6nemli olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fcklerini s\u00f6yleyen \u015eekerci, buna \u00f6rnek olarak merkezi y\u00f6netim b\u00fct\u00e7esinde uzunca bir s\u00fcredir kat\u0131la\u015fm\u0131\u015f yap\u0131\u015fkan oldu\u011funu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnd\u00fckleri baz\u0131 harcamalar oldu\u011funu kaydetti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Kaynak :\u00a0<span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 249, 236); color: rgb(55, 58, 60); font-size: 14px;\">Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"display: block; width: 343.125px; color: rgb(55, 58, 60); font-size: 14px; background-color: rgb(255, 249, 236);\"><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bloomberg HT\u2019ye konuk olan TSKB Ba\u015fekonomisti ve Direkt\u00f6r\u00fc Burcu \u00dcn\u00fcvar, Gedik Yat\u0131r\u0131m Ba\u015fekonomisti Serkan G\u00f6nen\u00e7ler ve \u0130\u015f Portf\u00f6y Y\u00f6netimi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc ve Ekonomist Hande \u015eekerci, 2025-2027 d\u00f6nemini i\u00e7eren Orta Vadeli Program\u0131\u2019n\u0131 (OVP)&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":76067,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2198,58,86,44,184],"class_list":["post-76066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-2198","tag-beklenti","tag-buyume","tag-enflasyon","tag-tahmin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76066"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76066\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76068,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76066\/revisions\/76068"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76067"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}