{"id":76069,"date":"2024-09-05T11:24:06","date_gmt":"2024-09-05T11:24:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=76069"},"modified":"2024-09-05T11:24:06","modified_gmt":"2024-09-05T11:24:06","slug":"ifo-almanyanin-buyume-beklentisini-dusurdu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2024\/09\/05\/ifo-almanyanin-buyume-beklentisini-dusurdu\/","title":{"rendered":"Ifo, Almanya’n\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Merkezi M\u00fcnih’te bulunan Ifo, Almanya ekonomisine ili\u015fkin haziranda payla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 2024-2025’i kapsayan b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminlerinde 2026\u2019y\u0131 da ekleyerek g\u00fcncelleme yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Buna g\u00f6re Enstit\u00fc, bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini y\u00fczde 0,4’dan y\u00fczde 0\u2019a ve 2025 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini de y\u00fczde 1,5\u2019ten 0,9\u2019a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrd\u00fc. Ifo, Alman ekonomisinin 2026\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 1,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n

\u00dclkede ge\u00e7en y\u0131l y\u00fczde 5,9 ve a\u011fustosta y\u00fczde 1,9 olan y\u0131ll\u0131k enflasyonun bu y\u0131l ortalama y\u00fczde 2,2 olmas\u0131n\u0131, 2025’te de y\u00fczde 2\u2019ye kadar d\u00fc\u015fmesini bekleyen Ifo, 2026\u2019da ise y\u00fczde 1,9 enflasyon \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Raporda, \u00fclkede tasarruf oran\u0131n\u0131n \u015fu anda y\u00fczde 11,3 ile Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131ndan \u00f6nceki 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k ortalama olan y\u00fczde 10,1’in olduk\u00e7a \u00fczerinde oldu\u011fu belirtildi. Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, faiz oran\u0131 ve enflasyonun kademeli olarak gev\u015femesiyle \u00fclkede \u00f6zel t\u00fcketimin bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,4 ve 2025 ve 2026\u2019da s\u0131ras\u0131yla y\u00fczde 1,4 ve y\u00fczde 1,5 artaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Ifo raporunda, \u00fclkede i\u015fsiz say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l ge\u00e7en y\u0131la g\u00f6re hafif artarak 2,60 milyondan 2,77 milyona y\u00fckselece\u011fi ve gelecek y\u0131l tekrar 2,72 milyona d\u00fc\u015fece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fsizlik oran\u0131n\u0131n 2024’te y\u00fczde 6 ve 2025’te 5,8 olaca\u011f\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen raporda, istihdam edilen ki\u015fi say\u0131s\u0131n\u0131n ise bu y\u0131l 46 milyondan 46,18 milyona ve 2025\u2019te ise 46,34 milyona y\u00fckselece\u011fi tahminlerine yer verildi.<\/p>\n

Ifo, Alman kamu sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 107,5 milyar euro olan b\u00fct\u00e7e a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n, bu y\u0131l 86,3 milyar euroya ve gelecek y\u0131l 57,7 milyar euroya gerilemesini bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Ge\u00e7en y\u0131l 257,7 milyar euro olan \u00fclkenin cari i\u015flemler fazlas\u0131n\u0131n bu y\u0131l 303,9 milyar euroya y\u00fckselece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen raporda, s\u00f6z konusu fazlan\u0131n 2025’te 305,1 milyar euroya ula\u015fmas\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n

Ifo\u2019nun tahminlerine g\u00f6re, y\u00fcksek faizler nedeniyle zor durumdaki in\u015faat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00fcretim bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 3,1, sanayide ise y\u00fczde 2,0 daralacak.<\/p>\n

“Alman ekonomisi s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve can \u00e7eki\u015fiyor”<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Ifo \u0130\u015f D\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc Ara\u015ft\u0131rma ve Ekonomik Tahmin M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Timo Wollmershaeuser, konuya ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmesinde, \u201cDi\u011fer \u00fclkeler ekonomide y\u00fckseli\u015fi hissederken, Alman ekonomisi s\u0131k\u0131\u015fm\u0131\u015f durumda ve can \u00e7eki\u015fiyor.\u201d ifadesini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Wollmershaeuser, Almanya\u2019n\u0131n \u201cyap\u0131sal bir kriz\u201d ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirterek, \u201c\u00d6zellikle imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde \u00e7ok az yat\u0131r\u0131m yap\u0131l\u0131yor ve verimlilik y\u0131llard\u0131r durgun. Ayn\u0131 zamanda ekonomik bir krizimiz de var. Sipari\u015f durumu k\u00f6t\u00fc ve sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fcndeki art\u0131\u015flar t\u00fcketimi artt\u0131rmak yerine daha fazla tasarrufa yol a\u00e7\u0131yor \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc insanlar tedirgin.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n

Timo Wollmershaeuser, dekarbonizasyon, dijitalle\u015fme, demografik de\u011fi\u015fim, Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131, enerji fiyat \u015foku ve \u00c7in’in k\u00fcresel ekonomideki de\u011fi\u015fen rol\u00fc, yerle\u015fik i\u015f modelleri \u00fczerinde bask\u0131 olu\u015fturdu\u011funu ve Alman \u015firketleri \u00fcretim modellerini yeniden ayarlamaya zorlad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 kaydetti.<\/p>\n

\u00d6zellikle Almanya’da ekonomik \u00fcretiminin di\u011fer \u00fclkelere g\u00f6re \u00e7ok daha y\u00fcksek bir oran\u0131n\u0131 olu\u015fturan imalat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde bir yat\u0131r\u0131m d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn s\u00f6z konusu oldu\u011funu aktaran Wollmershaeuser, \u201cAyr\u0131ca n\u00fcfus daha h\u0131zl\u0131 ya\u015flan\u0131yor ve giderek daha az insan \u00e7al\u0131\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130malat sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnden hizmet sekt\u00f6r\u00fcne ge\u00e7i\u015fler, son y\u0131llardaki \u00fcretkenlik durgunlu\u011funu b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde a\u00e7\u0131kl\u0131yor.\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Alman ekonomisi yeniden resesyona girme riskiyle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

\u00d6te yandan, Alman ekonomisi artan faiz oranlar\u0131 ile konjonkt\u00fcrel r\u00fczgarlar\u0131n ve yap\u0131sal de\u011fi\u015fikliklerin ortas\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmekte zorluk \u00e7ekiyor.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi, y\u0131l\u0131n ikinci \u00e7eyre\u011finde bir \u00f6nceki \u00e7eyre\u011fe k\u0131yasla azalan yat\u0131r\u0131mlar nedeniyle y\u00fczde 0,1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n

Almanya Merkez Bankas\u0131 ise \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyor.<\/p>\n

Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc ise \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte gayrisafi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131lada (GSYH) daha fazla d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyor.<\/p>\n

E\u011fer Alman ekonomisi \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnc\u00fc \u00e7eyrekte k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fcrse, teknik resesyona girmi\u015f olacak.<\/p>\n

Teknik resesyon, “\u00fcst \u00fcste iki \u00e7eyrek GSYH’de k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclme ya\u015fanmas\u0131” olarak ifade edilirken, Almanya, 10 y\u0131ll\u0131k iyi bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcmeden sonra salg\u0131n\u0131n ilk y\u0131l\u0131 olan 2020’de, 2009’dan beri ilk kez resesyon ya\u015fam\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Alman h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ise ekonomide bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,3’l\u00fck b\u00fcy\u00fcme bekliyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Almanya’n\u0131n \u00f6nde gelen ekonomik d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcnce kurulu\u015flar\u0131ndan Ekonomi Ara\u015ft\u0131rma Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc (Ifo), \u00fclkenin 2024 ve gelecek y\u0131la ili\u015fkin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminini, zay\u0131f yat\u0131r\u0131m ve sipari\u015f durumu nedeniyle a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize etti.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":76070,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2198,86,185,4380,184],"class_list":["post-76069","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-2198","tag-buyume","tag-ekonomi","tag-ifo","tag-tahmin"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76069","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=76069"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76069\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":76071,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/76069\/revisions\/76071"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/76070"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=76069"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=76069"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=76069"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}