{"id":80094,"date":"2024-09-26T09:24:07","date_gmt":"2024-09-26T09:24:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=80094"},"modified":"2024-09-26T09:24:07","modified_gmt":"2024-09-26T09:24:07","slug":"fed-gevseme-dongusune-jumbo-indirimle-basladi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2024\/09\/26\/fed-gevseme-dongusune-jumbo-indirimle-basladi\/","title":{"rendered":"Fed gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne jumbo indirimle ba\u015flad\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Fed para politikas\u0131nda yakla\u015f\u0131k d\u00f6rt y\u0131ld\u0131r devam eden d\u00f6nemi sonland\u0131rd\u0131 ve piyasalarda beklenen gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc i\u00e7in ilk hamlesini yapt\u0131.<\/p>\n

Banka politika faizinde 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi. Faiz aral\u0131\u011f\u0131 y\u00fczde 4,75-5 aral\u0131\u011f\u0131na \u00e7ekildi. Bloomberg anketine kat\u0131lan ekonomistlerin beklentisi politika faizinin 25 baz puan indirilmesi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeydi. Karar 1’e kar\u015f\u0131 11 oyla al\u0131nd\u0131. Sadece Fed \u00dcyesi Michelle Bowman 25 baz puanl\u0131k indirim y\u00f6n\u00fcnde oy kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Karar metniyle birlikte piyasan\u0131n yak\u0131ndan izledi\u011fi noktasal grafi\u011fe yans\u0131yan Fed yetkililerinin patikaya ili\u015fkin \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcleri de belli oldu. Buna g\u00f6re Fed yetkilileri 2024’te kalan iki toplant\u0131da toplamda 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim \u00f6ng\u00f6rd\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

\n

Karar metninde ekonomik aktiviteye ili\u015fkin vurgular \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. Karar metninde \u201cKomite, enflasyonun s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir \u015fekilde y\u00fczde 2’ye do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fine dair daha fazla g\u00fcven kazand\u0131 ve istihdam ve enflasyon hedeflerine ula\u015fma risklerinin kabaca dengede oldu\u011funa karar verdi\u201d denildi ve yetkililerin enflasyonu hedeflerine geri getirmenin yan\u0131 s\u0131ra \u201cmaksimum istihdam\u0131 desteklemeye g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc bir \u015fekilde ba\u011fl\u0131 olduklar\u0131\u201d belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Yetkililer karar metninde, \u201cgelen verilere, geli\u015fen g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcme ve risk dengesine\u201d ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak faiz oranlar\u0131nda \u201cek ayarlamalar\u201d yapmay\u0131 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcneceklerini s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Ayr\u0131ca enflasyonun \u201cbir miktar y\u00fcksek kalmaya devam etti\u011fini\u201d ve istihdam art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n yava\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti.<\/p>\n

Ekonomik tahminler de belli oldu<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Fed yetkilileri ekonomik verilere ili\u015fkin \u00e7eyreklik projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 da kamuoyuyla payla\u015ft\u0131. Buna g\u00f6re Haziran toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 2024 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 2,1 olarak g\u00f6r\u00fclen b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi y\u00fczde 2 seviyesine \u00e7ekildi. 2025 b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisi tahmini ise y\u00fczde 2 seviyesinde korundu.<\/p>\n

\u0130\u015fsizlik beklentisinde ise yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizelere dikkat \u00e7ekti. Buna g\u00f6re Fed yetkililerinin 2024 i\u015fsizlik beklentisi y\u00fczde 4’ten y\u00fczde 4,4’e; 2025 beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 4,2’den y\u00fczde 4,4’e y\u00fckseltildi.<\/p>\n

Fed’in enflasyon g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm\u00fc a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan takip etti\u011fi g\u00f6stergelerden PCE taraf\u0131nda da a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyonlar \u00f6ne \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131. PCE’de 2024 beklentisi y\u00fczde 2,6’dan y\u00fczde 2,3’e; 2025 beklentisi ise y\u00fczde 2,3’ten y\u00fczde 2,1’e indirildi. \u00c7ekirdek PCE taraf\u0131nda ise 2024 beklentisi y\u00fczde 2,8’den y\u00fczde 2,6’ya indirildi. 2025 beklentisi de y\u00fczde 2,3’ten y\u00fczde 2,2’ye \u00e7ekildi. <\/p>\n

Para politikas\u0131nda d\u00f6rt y\u0131l s\u00fcren s\u0131k\u0131 duru\u015f<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Fed, son olarak Kovid-19 salg\u0131n\u0131n\u0131n ekonomik etkilerine ili\u015fkin endi\u015felerin artmas\u0131 nedeniyle Mart 2020’de iki kez acil faiz indirimi karar\u0131 alm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Banka, enflasyonla m\u00fccadele i\u00e7in Mart 2022’den sonra \u00fcst \u00fcste faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131 yaparak faizleri 23 y\u0131l\u0131n en y\u00fcksek seviyesine \u00e7\u0131karm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Fed, Temmuz toplant\u0131s\u0131nda enflasyonun hedefe do\u011fru ilerledi\u011fini belirterek faiz indiriminin yak\u0131n oldu\u011fu sinyali vermi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Fed Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jerome Powell, ge\u00e7en ay Jackson Hole toplant\u0131s\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, para politikas\u0131 i\u00e7in ayarlama zaman\u0131 geldi\u011fi mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015fti. Bu mesaj Fed’in gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcne Eyl\u00fcl toplant\u0131s\u0131nda ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde alg\u0131lanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Beklentilerde tarihi ayr\u0131\u015fma ya\u015fanm\u0131\u015ft\u0131<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

ABD’de son gelen ekonomik veriler enflasyonun ivme kaybetti\u011fine i\u015faret etse de baz\u0131 g\u00f6stergeler piyasada resesyon endi\u015felerini de canland\u0131rm\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu endi\u015feler dolay\u0131s\u0131yla Fed’in jumbo bir indirimle politika faizinde 50 baz puanl\u0131k hamle yap\u0131labilece\u011fi de dile getirilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bu durum piyasa fiyatlamalar\u0131na da yans\u0131m\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bloomberg taraf\u0131ndan derlenen verilere g\u00f6re, Fed\u2019in – pandeminin ba\u015flang\u0131c\u0131nda – Mart 2020\u2019de yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 acil faiz indirimi d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, swap piyasalar\u0131 2007\u2019den bu yana bir Fed karar\u0131na hi\u00e7 bu kadar \u015f\u00fcpheyle girmemi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

S\u00f6z konusu analiz, Fed kararlar\u0131n\u0131n al\u0131nmas\u0131ndan iki g\u00fcn \u00f6nce bu kararlar\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6ren swap oran\u0131 ile nihai olarak kararla\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan oran aras\u0131ndaki farka dayan\u0131yor. Bu haftaki Fed karar\u0131na ba\u011fl\u0131 swaplar 25 ile 50 baz puan\u0131n aras\u0131nda bir seviye olan 37 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirimi fiyatl\u0131yor. Bu y\u0131l i\u00e7in toplam 117 baz puanl\u0131k bir gev\u015feme fiyatlan\u0131rken, fiyatlamalar bu toplant\u0131da olmasa bile kas\u0131m veya aral\u0131k aylar\u0131ndan birinde 50 baz puanl\u0131k bir indirim ihtimaline i\u015faret ediyor.<\/p>\n

\n
\n
<\/div>\n<\/figure><\/div>\n<\/p>\n

Piyasan\u0131n tecr\u00fcbeli isimleri gev\u015femenin boyutunun \u00f6nemsiz oldu\u011fu mesaj\u0131n\u0131 vermi\u015fti<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n

Piyasa 25 ve 50 baz puanl\u0131k indirim beklentisi konusunda ikiye b\u00f6l\u00fcn\u00fcrken, ABD’nin \u00f6nde gelen isimlerinden faiz indiriminin boyutunun etkileri bak\u0131m\u0131ndan fark yaratmayaca\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6n\u00fcnde mesajlar gelmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n

Bridgewater Associates\u2019in kurucusu Ray Dalio, Milken Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc Asya Zirvesi 2024\u2019\u00fcn oturum aralar\u0131nda yapt\u0131\u011f\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klamada, Fed\u2019in hamlesinin uzun vadede \u201cbir fark yaratmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6ylemi\u015f ve \u201cBence bu – 25 ya da 50, \u00e7ok aptalca bir bahis\u201d diye konu\u015fmu\u015ftu. Benzer \u015fekilde JPMorgan Chase & Co. \u0130cra Kurulu Ba\u015fkan\u0131 Jamie Dimon da Fed faizleri 25 ya da 50 baz puan d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrse de, bu hamlenin \u201cd\u00fcnyay\u0131 sarsacak bir \u015fey olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131\u201d s\u00f6ylemi\u015fti. Dimon Sal\u0131 g\u00fcn\u00fc kat\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 bir konferansta \u201cFed\u2019in faizleri y\u00fckseltmesi ve d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmesi \u00f6nemsiz bir \u015fey \u00e7\u00fcnk\u00fc bunun alt\u0131nda<\/b> reel bir ekonomi var\u201d demi\u015fti.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

ABD Merkez Bankas\u0131 (Fed) k\u00fcresel piyasalarda merakla beklenen faiz karar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131. Banka gev\u015feme d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fc i\u00e7in ilk ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131 att\u0131. Fed b\u00f6ylece 4 y\u0131l aradan sonra ilk faiz indirimini ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirdi.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":80095,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1903,1131,555,325,798],"class_list":["post-80094","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-beklentisi","tag-faiz","tag-fed","tag-karar","tag-yuzde-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80094","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=80094"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80094\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":80098,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/80094\/revisions\/80098"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/80095"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=80094"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=80094"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=80094"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}