{"id":84825,"date":"2024-10-09T07:12:07","date_gmt":"2024-10-09T07:12:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=84825"},"modified":"2024-10-09T07:12:07","modified_gmt":"2024-10-09T07:12:07","slug":"tcmbden-parasal-sikilasma-donemlerinde-firmalarin-temerrude-dusme-davranislari-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2024\/10\/09\/tcmbden-parasal-sikilasma-donemlerinde-firmalarin-temerrude-dusme-davranislari-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"TCMB’den “Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde firmalar\u0131n temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131” analizi"},"content":{"rendered":"
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TCMB Veri Y\u00f6neti\u015fimi ve \u0130statistik Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc Yusuf Kenan Ba\u011f\u0131r, Yap\u0131sal Ekonomik Ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar Genel M\u00fcd\u00fcr\u00fc \u00dcnal Seven ile Ekonomist Ertan Tok taraf\u0131ndan haz\u0131rlanan “Parasal S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma D\u00f6nemlerinde Firmalar\u0131n Temerr\u00fcde D\u00fc\u015fme Davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Nas\u0131l Farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor?” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 analiz yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde finansal istikrar\u0131n g\u00f6zetimi a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan takip edilen g\u00f6stergelerin ba\u015f\u0131nda firma temerr\u00fctlerinin geldi\u011fi belirtilen analizde, “Bu yaz\u0131da, farkl\u0131 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde firma temerr\u00fctlerinin geli\u015fimini inceliyoruz. 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde firma temerr\u00fctlerinin \u00f6l\u00e7ek ve sekt\u00f6r baz\u0131nda de\u011fi\u015fimlerine ve finansal bor\u00e7lulu\u011fun rol\u00fcne ili\u015fkin \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131mlarda bulunuyoruz.” ifadeleri kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Analize, tarihsel olarak, ticari kredi faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n 2018 ve 2023 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6nemlerinde y\u00fckseldi\u011finin g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc aktar\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n

Buna kar\u015f\u0131n, 2018 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde artan TGA’lar\u0131n 2023 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde g\u00f6rece d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyretti\u011fi vurgulanan analizde, \u015funlar kaydedildi:<\/p>\n

“TCMB para politikas\u0131 faizi 2018 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131 sonras\u0131ndaki d\u00f6rt ay i\u00e7erisinde y\u00fczde 8\u2019den y\u00fczde 24 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lm\u0131\u015f ve Temmuz 2019\u2019a kadar bu seviyede tutulmu\u015ftu. Politika faizindeki art\u0131\u015fla e\u015fanl\u0131 olarak s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6ncesi y\u00fczde 17,9 seviyesinde olan ticari kredi faiz oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 35 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131km\u0131\u015ft\u0131. Bu s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcnde ticari kredi TGA oranlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u0131zla y\u00fckseli\u015fe ge\u00e7ti\u011fi ve s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma \u00f6ncesi d\u00f6nemdeki y\u00fczde 3 seviyesinden 2019 y\u0131l\u0131 sonuna kadar y\u00fczde 6 seviyesine \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. \u0130\u00e7inde bulundu\u011fumuz s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde ise ticari kredi faizlerindeki y\u00fckseli\u015fe kar\u015f\u0131n TGA oranlar\u0131 y\u00fczde 1,5 seviyesinde. Bu ayr\u0131\u015fmada, iki d\u00f6nem aras\u0131ndaki faiz art\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n zamanlamas\u0131, enflasyon seviyesi, kur de\u011fi\u015fimleri ve jeopolitik geli\u015fmeler gibi makro fakt\u00f6rlerin yan\u0131nda, firma ve sekt\u00f6r spesifik \u00f6zelliklerin de belirleyici oldu\u011funu de\u011ferlendiriyoruz.”<\/p>\n

Analizde, \u015fu de\u011ferlendirmelere yer verildi:<\/p>\n

“\u0130ki s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde temerr\u00fctlerde g\u00f6zlenen ayr\u0131\u015fman\u0131n firma \u00f6zellikleri ile ili\u015fkisini g\u00f6stermek amac\u0131yla, firma bazl\u0131 ya\u015fland\u0131rma analizleri yap\u0131yoruz. Ya\u015fland\u0131rma analizi, temel olarak belirli bir d\u00f6nemde sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlanan firmalar\u0131n, sonraki d\u00f6nemde temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme oranlar\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6steriyor. Analizde \u00f6ncelikle faizlerin yatay seyretti\u011fi 2014 haziran sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nem referans olarak tan\u0131mlan\u0131yor. Bu d\u00f6nemde temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fen firmalar\u0131n oran\u0131n\u0131n 16 ayda y\u00fczde 5\u2019e yakla\u015ft\u0131\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. 2018 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde ise sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 firmalardan temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fenlerin oran\u0131n\u0131n 2014-2015\u2019le kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda daha y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor. Ayr\u0131\u015fma, faiz art\u0131r\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 aydan 6 ay sonra belirginle\u015fmeye ba\u015fl\u0131yor.”<\/p>\n

Sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 firmalar\u0131n y\u00fczde ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131n analiz ba\u015flang\u0131\u00e7 tarihinden 16 ay ge\u00e7tikten sonra temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fcn firma \u00f6l\u00e7e\u011fi ve bor\u00e7luluk d\u00fczeyi k\u0131r\u0131l\u0131m\u0131nda \u00f6zetlendi\u011fi bildirilen analizde, firmalar\u0131n \u00f6l\u00e7ek bak\u0131m\u0131ndan, mikro, orta ve b\u00fcy\u00fck olmak \u00fczere 3 gruba; bor\u00e7luluk d\u00fczeyi bak\u0131m\u0131ndan da firman\u0131n kredi bakiyesini net sat\u0131\u015flar\u0131na oranlayarak d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck, orta ve y\u00fcksek olmak \u00fczere \u00fc\u00e7 gruba ayr\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 belirtildi.<\/p>\n

Analizde, para politikas\u0131nda s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fman\u0131n ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 Haziran 2018-Eyl\u00fcl 2019 ile faizlerin yatay seyretti\u011fi Haziran 2014- Eyl\u00fcl 2015 d\u00f6nemlerinin firma temerr\u00fctleri bor\u00e7luluk ve \u00f6l\u00e7ek a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, temerr\u00fct art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lu orta ve b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7ekli firma grubunda daha belirgin oldu\u011fu g\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc\u011f\u00fc kaydedildi.<\/p>\n

– Bulgular bor\u00e7luluk ve temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131nda pozitif bir ili\u015fki oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n

Bulgular\u0131n bor\u00e7luluk ve temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 aras\u0131nda pozitif bir ili\u015fki oldu\u011funu ve bu ili\u015fkinin faizlerin artmaya ba\u015flad\u0131\u011f\u0131 d\u00f6nemde, yatay seyretti\u011fi d\u00f6neme k\u0131yasla daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc oldu\u011funu g\u00f6sterdi\u011fi aktar\u0131lan analizde, di\u011fer bir ifadeyle, temerr\u00fcd\u00fcn bor\u00e7lulu\u011fa olan duyarl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fcksek faiz patikas\u0131 ortam\u0131nda daha da y\u00fckseldi\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n

Analizde, buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak, y\u00fcksek bor\u00e7lulu\u011fa sahip firmalar\u0131n 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayan faiz art\u0131r\u0131m s\u00fcrecine di\u011fer firmalara k\u0131yasla daha olumsuz tepki vermesinin beklenebilece\u011fine i\u015faret edildi.<\/p>\n

Kullan\u0131lan kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma d\u00f6nemleri ve mevcut faiz patikas\u0131 d\u00f6nemi aras\u0131nda ekonominin ivmesi, faiz oranlar\u0131ndaki de\u011fi\u015fim oran\u0131, bankalar\u0131n risk y\u00fcklenme kapasitesi ve reel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan farkl\u0131l\u0131klar mevcut oldu\u011fu vurgulanan analizde, “\u00d6rne\u011fin, reel sekt\u00f6r bor\u00e7lulu\u011fu ve mevcut TGA oranlar\u0131 enflasyon etkisiyle birlikte \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlere k\u0131yasla 2023 parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde olduk\u00e7a d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seviyede. Ayr\u0131ca, 2018 d\u00f6nemiyle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn D\u00f6viz pozisyon a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131 da olduk\u00e7a azalm\u0131\u015f ve kur \u015foklar\u0131na kar\u015f\u0131 dayan\u0131kl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 artm\u0131\u015f durumda. Bu a\u00e7\u0131lardan, bankalar\u0131n kredi riski ta\u015f\u0131ma kapasitesinin, firmalar\u0131n da bor\u00e7 ta\u015f\u0131ma kapasitesinin kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131r\u0131lan d\u00f6nemlerin \u00fczerinde oldu\u011funu s\u00f6ylemek m\u00fcmk\u00fcn. Bu durum, reel sekt\u00f6r firmalar\u0131n\u0131n ve bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcn kredi temerr\u00fctlerine kar\u015f\u0131 daha dayan\u0131kl\u0131 oldu\u011funu g\u00f6steriyor.” de\u011ferlendirmelerine yer verildi.<\/p>\n

Firma temerr\u00fctlerinin 2023 y\u0131l\u0131 haziran sonras\u0131 ve 2018-2019 d\u00f6nemlerinde farkl\u0131la\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6stermek amac\u0131yla ya\u015fland\u0131rma analizinin 1 Haziran 2023 – 31 A\u011fustos 2024 d\u00f6nemi i\u00e7in geni\u015fletildi\u011fi aktar\u0131lan analizde, \u015f\u00f6yle devam edildi:<\/p>\n

“May\u0131s 2023 itibar\u0131yla sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olarak tan\u0131mlanan firmalar\u0131n temerr\u00fct geli\u015fimini \u00f6nceki d\u00f6nemlerle kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rd\u0131k. Buna g\u00f6re, 2023 may\u0131s ay\u0131nda sa\u011fl\u0131kl\u0131 olan firmalar\u0131n takip eden aylarda temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme oranlar\u0131 2018- 2019 temerr\u00fct oranlar\u0131ndan ve faizlerin artmad\u0131\u011f\u0131 2014 haziran sonras\u0131 d\u00f6nemde ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen oranlardan belirgin \u015fekilde daha d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck seyrediyor. Ayr\u0131ca, ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen temerr\u00fct oran\u0131 ve temerr\u00fcde d\u00fc\u015fme h\u0131z\u0131 mevcut d\u00f6nemde olduk\u00e7a olumlu seyretmekte. Sekt\u00f6rel seviyede bak\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131nda da 2023 d\u00f6nemindeki olumlu ayr\u0131\u015fma olduk\u00e7a belirgin ve sekt\u00f6rler aras\u0131nda homojen bir g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcm arz ediyor. \u00d6zetle, firma temerr\u00fct oranlar\u0131, parasal s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma ad\u0131mlar\u0131n\u0131n kademeli at\u0131lmas\u0131 ve reel sekt\u00f6r\u00fcn azalan yerli-yabanc\u0131 para bor\u00e7 y\u00fck\u00fc nedeniyle \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 seyrediyor. Bununla birlikte, firma temerr\u00fct oranlar\u0131 fiyat istikrar\u0131 ve finansal istikrar a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan yak\u0131ndan takip edilmesi gereken g\u00f6stergelerden biri olmaya devam ediyor.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fcrkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankas\u0131n\u0131n (TCMB) blog sayfas\u0131 Merkezin G\u00fcncesi’nde yer alan “Parasal S\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma D\u00f6nemlerinde Firmalar\u0131n Temerr\u00fcde D\u00fc\u015fme Davran\u0131\u015flar\u0131 Nas\u0131l Farkl\u0131la\u015f\u0131yor?” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 analizde 2018 s\u0131k\u0131la\u015fma d\u00f6neminde artan tahsili gecikmi\u015f…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84826,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[2237,857,1131,1044,4567],"class_list":["post-84825","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-analiz","tag-donem","tag-faiz","tag-firmalarin","tag-oranlari"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84825","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=84825"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84825\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84827,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84825\/revisions\/84827"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/84826"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=84825"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=84825"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=84825"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}