{"id":87046,"date":"2024-10-17T19:00:05","date_gmt":"2024-10-17T19:00:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=87046"},"modified":"2024-10-17T19:00:05","modified_gmt":"2024-10-17T19:00:05","slug":"citi-barclays-goldman-ve-morgan-stanleyden-tcmb-analizi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2024\/10\/17\/citi-barclays-goldman-ve-morgan-stanleyden-tcmb-analizi\/","title":{"rendered":"Citi, Barclays, Goldman ve Morgan Stanley\u2019den TCMB analizi"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Citi ekonomistleri \u0130lker Doma\u00e7 ve G\u00fcltekin I\u015f\u0131klar faiz indiriminin Kas\u0131m\u2019da ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131 g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc korurken risk dengelerinin Aral\u0131k\u2019ta 250 baz puanl\u0131k indirime do\u011fru kayd\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtti. Ekonomistler \u201cPara Politikas\u0131 Kurulu\u2019nun i\u00e7 talebin enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015fe daha fazla destek verdi\u011fi y\u00f6n\u00fcndeki de\u011ferlendirmesi ve 4. \u00e7eyrekte hizmet enflasyonunda d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f beklentisi bize, yak\u0131n gelecekte a\u00e7\u0131klanacak olumlu verilerin TCMB\u2019yi faiz indirimine ba\u015flamak konusunda daha rahat hale gelebilece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n

Goldman Sachs Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n bug\u00fcn enflasyonun iyile\u015fme h\u0131z\u0131na dair belirsizliklere at\u0131fta bulunmas\u0131yla 8 Kas\u0131m\u2019daki enflasyon raporu toplant\u0131s\u0131nda 2024 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahmininin yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edilebilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

Barclays: Ocak ay\u0131na ertelenebilir<\/b><\/p>\n

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Barclays Ekonomisti Ercan Erg\u00fczel bankan\u0131n ne zaman indirime ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131ndan ziyade indirimlerin \u2018s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilirli\u011finin\u2019 yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in as\u0131l odak noktas\u0131 olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 s\u00f6yledi.<\/p>\n

Notta faiz indirimlerinin Aral\u0131k\u2019ta ba\u015flayabilece\u011fi ancak Ocak ay\u0131na ertelenme riski oldu\u011funa dikkat \u00e7ekilirken \u201cTCMB \u015fu a\u015famada faiz indiriminin zamanlamas\u0131 ve h\u0131z\u0131 konusunda hala karars\u0131z g\u00f6r\u00fcn\u00fcyor, birka\u00e7 ay daha verileri g\u00f6rmek isteyecektir.\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapt\u0131. Ekonomist, Ekim ve Kas\u0131m aylar\u0131nda enflasyon daha olumlu seyrederse (ayl\u0131k enflasyon y\u00fczde 2 civar\u0131nda, asgari \u00fccret art\u0131\u015f\u0131 y\u00fczde 25 civar\u0131nda olursa) Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda 200-250 baz puanl\u0131k indirim olabilece\u011fi g\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fc payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley: Faiz indirimi Ocak\u2019ta ba\u015flayabilir<\/b><\/p>\n

Morgan Stanley ekonomisti Hande K\u00fc\u00e7\u00fck ise TCMB\u2019nin temkinli s\u00f6yleminin devam etti\u011fini, bankan\u0131n Aral\u0131k ay\u0131nda faiz indirimine kap\u0131y\u0131 kapatmad\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ancak ilk indirimi Ocak ay\u0131nda beklediklerini dile getirdi. TCMB\u2019nin son \u00e7eyrekte ayl\u0131k enflasyonda iyile\u015fme bekledi\u011fi, bunun da Aral\u0131k\u2019ta faiz indirimini g\u00fcndeme getirebilece\u011fi belirtildi. Gelecek enflasyon verilerinin bu kararda \u00f6nemli olaca\u011f\u0131 vurguland\u0131. Ekonomist, Kas\u0131m ay\u0131 enflasyon raporunda 2024 ve 2025 y\u0131l sonu enflasyon tahminlerinde yukar\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revizyon olabilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fc payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n

Banka 15 Ekim tarihli notunda da Merkez Bankas\u0131\u2019n\u0131n faiz indirim d\u00f6ng\u00fcs\u00fcn\u00fcn Ocak ay\u0131nda ba\u015flayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rm\u00fc\u015f ve \u201cOcak ay\u0131nda gev\u015feme ad\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n 250 baz puanl\u0131k indirimle ba\u015flamas\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyoruz\u201d de\u011ferlendirmesini yapm\u0131\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Citi, Goldman Sachs, Barclays ve Morgan Stanley TCMB\u2019nin politika faizini de\u011fi\u015ftirmeyerek y\u00fczde 50\u2019de b\u0131rakt\u0131\u011f\u0131 faiz karar\u0131 sonras\u0131 beklentilerini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":87047,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[48,44,723,448,3629],"class_list":["post-87046","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-banka","tag-enflasyon","tag-faiz-indirimi","tag-indirim","tag-ocak"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87046","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=87046"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87046\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":87048,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/87046\/revisions\/87048"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/87047"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=87046"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=87046"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=87046"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}