{"id":88926,"date":"2025-05-03T07:24:06","date_gmt":"2025-05-03T07:24:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/?p=88926"},"modified":"2025-05-03T07:24:06","modified_gmt":"2025-05-03T07:24:06","slug":"morgan-stanleyden-dolar-tl-tahmini","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/2025\/05\/03\/morgan-stanleyden-dolar-tl-tahmini\/","title":{"rendered":"Morgan Stanley\u2019den dolar\/TL tahmini"},"content":{"rendered":"<div>\n<p>Morgan Stanley \u201cBekleme Oyunu\u201d isimli yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019nin Dolar\/TL  ve enflasyon tahminlerini payla\u015ft\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Morgan Stanley, yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, \u201cG\u00f6r\u00fc\u015f\u00fcm\u00fcze g\u00f6re, T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de TCMB&#8217;nin enflasyonu d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcrmeye odaklanmaya devam etmesi TL\u2019yi destekliyor.\u201d ifadelerini kulland\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>Raporda, 2024 sonu dolar\/TL i\u00e7in 36 tahminlerine g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelebilece\u011fi belirtirken, 2025 sonu i\u00e7in dolar\/TL tahmini 43 seviyesinde korundu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div>\n<p>12 ayl\u0131k enflasyon beklentilerinin y\u00fczde 27 oldu\u011funu belirten Morgan Stanley, 24 ayl\u0131k vadeli enflasyon beklentilerini ise y\u0131ll\u0131k y\u00fczde 18 seviyesinde tuttu.<\/p>\n<p><b><strong>\u201cTCMB&#8217;nin daha yava\u015f bir h\u0131zda gev\u015femesini bekliyoruz\u201d<\/strong><\/b><\/p>\n<p>Raporda TCMB&#8217;nin para politikas\u0131 patikas\u0131na ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerde yer ald\u0131. Morgan Stanley analistleri konuyla ilgili olarak \u015fu ifadeleri kulland\u0131:<\/p>\n<p>2025\u2019in ilk yar\u0131s\u0131nda daha yava\u015f bir TCMB faiz indirimi yolu tahminimiz g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, para biriminin tahvillerden daha cazip oldu\u011funa inanmaya devam ediyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>Uzun TL pozisyonlar\u0131, yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lara y\u0131l ba\u015f\u0131ndan bu yana dolara g\u00f6re yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 25 getiri sa\u011flad\u0131.<\/p>\n<p>\u00d6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki haftalarda daha zay\u0131f bir euro riski g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcne al\u0131nd\u0131\u011f\u0131nda, TL pozisyonlar\u0131n\u0131 euro cinsinden finanse etmenin k\u0131sa vadede daha fazla getiri sa\u011flayabilece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz. TCMB&#8217;nin piyasadan daha yava\u015f bir h\u0131zda gev\u015femesini bekliyoruz.<\/p>\n<p>T\u00fcrkiye&#8217;de sanayi sekt\u00f6r\u00fcnde, yat\u0131r\u0131m e\u011filimlerinde ve hane halk\u0131 ile firmalar\u0131n kredi riski g\u00f6stergelerinde daha zay\u0131f aktivite belirtileri var, ancak t\u00fcketim e\u011filimleri diren\u00e7li kalmaya devam ediyor. Daha zay\u0131f aktivitenin yat\u0131r\u0131mc\u0131lar i\u00e7in ekonomiyi desteklemek i\u00e7in politika eylemi yap\u0131l\u0131p yap\u0131lamayaca\u011f\u0131 konusunda soru i\u015faretleri yaratabilece\u011fine inan\u0131yoruz.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/p>\n<p>Kaynak :\u00a0<span style=\"background-color: rgb(255, 249, 236); color: rgb(55, 58, 60); font-size: 14px;\">Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"display: block; width: 343.125px; color: rgb(55, 58, 60); font-size: 14px; background-color: rgb(255, 249, 236);\"><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Morgan Stanley yay\u0131mlad\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, dolar\/TL&#8217;nin 2024 sonu i\u00e7in 36 tahminlerine g\u00f6re daha g\u00fc\u00e7l\u00fc gelebilece\u011fini ve 2025 sonuna ili\u015fkin 43 olan dolar\/TL tahminlerini de koruduklar\u0131n\u0131 a\u00e7\u0131klad\u0131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":88927,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[1285],"class_list":["post-88926","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-tcmb"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88926","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=88926"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88926\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":88928,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/88926\/revisions\/88928"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/88927"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=88926"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=88926"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=88926"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}