Hindistan’\u0131n gyari safi yurti\u00e7i has\u0131la (GSYH) s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda Japonya’y\u0131 ge\u00e7ebilece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Baz\u0131 ekonomistlere g\u00f6re, ekonomik durgunluk ve zay\u0131f yen, d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 4 numaral\u0131 ekonomisini be\u015finci s\u0131raya ta\u015f\u0131d\u0131\u011f\u0131ndan, Hindistan’\u0131n gayri safi yurt i\u00e7i has\u0131las\u0131 yak\u0131nda Japonya’n\u0131nkinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck olabilir.<\/p>\n
Capital Economics’in Asya-Pasifik ba\u015fkan\u0131 Marcel Thieliant, “Mevcut tahminlerimize dayanarak, Hindistan’\u0131n 2026’da Japonya’y\u0131 ge\u00e7mesini bekliyorduk” dedi ve tahminlerin \u015fu anda son olaylar \u0131\u015f\u0131\u011f\u0131nda g\u00f6zden ge\u00e7irildi\u011fini s\u00f6zlerine ekledi.<\/p>\n
Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu, de\u011fi\u015fimin 2025’te ger\u00e7ekle\u015fece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. S&P Global Ratings, iki \u00fclkenin GSY\u0130H b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fc s\u0131ralamas\u0131nda yer de\u011fi\u015ftirmesi i\u00e7in 2030’u \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
2010 y\u0131l\u0131nda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisiydi <\/b><\/p>\n
Japonya, 2010’da \u00c7in taraf\u0131ndan ge\u00e7ilene kadar d\u00fcnyan\u0131n ikinci b\u00fcy\u00fck ekonomisiydi. Bu y\u0131l\u0131n ba\u015flar\u0131nda, Almanya’n\u0131n ekonomisi Japonya’n\u0131nkinden daha b\u00fcy\u00fck hale geldi.<\/p>\n
N\u00fcfus art\u0131\u015f\u0131 Hindistan’\u0131n g\u00f6receli y\u00fckseli\u015fini neredeyse ka\u00e7\u0131n\u0131lmaz hale getirdi\u011finden, bir sonraki de\u011fi\u015fim \u00e7ok yak\u0131n.<\/p>\n
D\u00fcnya Bankas\u0131’n\u0131n o zamanki dolar\u0131n de\u011ferine dayal\u0131 hesaplamalar\u0131na g\u00f6re, 2023’te Hindistan’\u0131n GSY\u0130H’si 3,55 trilyon dolarken, Japonya’n\u0131n GSY\u0130H’si 4,22 trilyon dolard\u0131. IMF, Hindistan i\u00e7in 2024’te y\u00fczde 7,0 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 6,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. Japonya i\u00e7in bu y\u0131l y\u00fczde 0,3 ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Japonya onlarca y\u0131ld\u0131r durgunluk ve deflasyonla m\u00fccadele ederken, Hindistan yakla\u015f\u0131k 2000 y\u0131l\u0131ndan bu yana istikrarl\u0131 bir \u015fekilde y\u00fckseli\u015fte.<\/p>\n
3. s\u0131raya y\u00fckselebilir <\/b><\/p>\n
S&P Global Ratings’in Asya-Pasifik ba\u015f ekonomisti Louis Kuijs, “Ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i olarak, Hindistan’\u0131n ger\u00e7ek anlamda y\u0131lda y\u00fczde 6 ila y\u00fczde 7 oran\u0131nda b\u00fcy\u00fcmemesi i\u00e7in belirgin bir neden yok” dedi.<\/p>\n
E\u011fer bu e\u011filim devam ederse, Hindistan \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki birka\u00e7 y\u0131l i\u00e7inde Japonya’dan daha b\u00fcy\u00fck bir GSYH’ye sahip olacak. Ayr\u0131ca yak\u0131nda Almanya’y\u0131 da ge\u00e7ebilir ve ABD ve \u00c7in’in alt\u0131nda 3. s\u0131raya yerle\u015febilir.<\/p>\n
Kuijs’e g\u00f6re, zay\u0131f yen, Japonya’n\u0131n bu s\u0131ralamalarda nas\u0131l \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fclece\u011finde \u00f6nemli bir rol oynuyor. Kujis de\u011ferlendirmelerini \u015f\u00f6yle s\u00fcrd\u00fcrd\u00fc; “\u00dclkeler aras\u0131ndaki ekonomilerin b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcn\u00fc kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rmak i\u00e7in d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 kullan\u0131yoruz. 2023’te, Japonya’n\u0131n ekonomisi, piyasa d\u00f6viz kurlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak Hindistan’\u0131nkinden yakla\u015f\u0131k y\u00fczde 18 daha b\u00fcy\u00fckt\u00fc. Bu y\u0131l, yen dolara kar\u015f\u0131 \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fer kaybetti, oysa Hindistan rupisi dolara kar\u015f\u0131 neredeyse hi\u00e7 k\u0131p\u0131rdamad\u0131.”<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Sat\u0131n alma g\u00fcc\u00fc paritesi (SAGP) a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan Hindistan halihaz\u0131rda d\u00fcnyan\u0131n 3 numaral\u0131 ekonomisi ve 5 numaral\u0131 Japonya’dan \u00e7ok daha b\u00fcy\u00fck. SAGP, GSY\u0130H’yi fiyatlardaki farkl\u0131l\u0131klara g\u00f6re ayarlayarak hesaplanan bir g\u00f6sterge.<\/p>\n
Turmp etkisi hen\u00fcz belli de\u011fil <\/b><\/p>\n
Japonya’n\u0131n art\u0131k az\u0131nl\u0131k h\u00fck\u00fcmeti ve nispeten \u015fahin bir merkez bankas\u0131 var, bu da siyasi kararl\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n eksikli\u011fini ve daha y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131n\u0131n gelece\u011fini g\u00f6steriyor.<\/p>\n
Donald Trump’\u0131n yak\u0131n zamanda ABD ba\u015fkan\u0131 se\u00e7ilmesi, ticaret ak\u0131\u015flar\u0131 ve ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme a\u00e7\u0131s\u0131ndan k\u00fcresel olarak \u00e7ok b\u00fcy\u00fck de\u011fi\u015fiklikler anlam\u0131na geliyor ve Hindistan veya Japonya i\u00e7in sonu\u00e7lar hen\u00fcz net de\u011fil.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Thieliant, “Trump’\u0131n zaferine yan\u0131t olarak d\u00f6viz kuru tahminlerimizi revize etme s\u00fcrecindeyiz, bu nedenle Hindistan’\u0131n Japonya’y\u0131 ne zaman ge\u00e7ece\u011finin zamanlamas\u0131 de\u011fi\u015febilir” dedi.<\/p>\n
Ekonomistler, Hindistan’\u0131n y\u00fckseli\u015finin b\u00fcy\u00fck \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde bir \u00f6l\u00e7ek meselesi oldu\u011funu ve GSY\u0130H’nin nominal art\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n perspektifte tutulmas\u0131 gerekti\u011fini belirtiyor.<\/p>\n
Kujis ise, “Bence Hindistan i\u00e7in en \u00f6nemli \u2018sapma\u2019 veya uyar\u0131, ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen GSY\u0130H ve gelirlerin \u00e7ok d\u00fc\u015f\u00fck kalmas\u0131. Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ya\u015fam standartlar\u0131n\u0131n \u00c7in\u2019in \u015fu anki seviyelerine, hatta Japonya\u2019n\u0131n \u015fu anki seviyelerine yakla\u015fmas\u0131 i\u00e7in daha uzun bir zaman var” de\u011ferlendirmesinde bulundu.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131 GSYH 2 bin 500 dolar <\/b><\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019\u0131n ki\u015fi ba\u015f\u0131na d\u00fc\u015fen GSYH\u2019si yakla\u015f\u0131k 2 bin 500 dolar. Japonya\u2019n\u0131nki ise yakla\u015f\u0131k 34 bin dolar.<\/p>\n
Hindistan\u2019daki herhangi bir ekonomik s\u0131k\u0131nt\u0131, b\u00fcy\u00fcmesini veya para birimini sert bir \u015fekilde etkileyebilir ve zaman \u00e7izelgesini \u00f6nemli \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcde de\u011fi\u015ftirebilir.<\/p>\n
Capital Economics\u2019te yard\u0131mc\u0131 ba\u015f geli\u015fmekte olan piyasalar ekonomisti olan Shilan Shah, \u201cBeklenenden daha zay\u0131f bir ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme d\u00f6nemi, bunun biraz daha uzun s\u00fcrmesi anlam\u0131na gelebilir; en \u00f6nemli a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc riskler, bankac\u0131l\u0131k sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki zay\u0131fl\u0131\u011f\u0131n kredi vermede yava\u015flamaya yol a\u00e7mas\u0131 veya t\u00fcketimi etkileyen artan i\u00e7 g\u0131da fiyatlar\u0131d\u0131r\u201d dedi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Uluslararas\u0131 Para Fonu, Hindistan i\u00e7in 2024’te y\u00fczde 7 ve 2025’te y\u00fczde 6,5 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor; bu y\u0131l Japonya i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,3 ve gelecek y\u0131l y\u00fczde 1,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcme \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":98412,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[926,283,1242,5841,115],"class_list":["post-98411","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-bas","tag-dolar","tag-hindistan","tag-hindistanin","tag-japonya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98411","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=98411"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98411\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":98413,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/98411\/revisions\/98413"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/98412"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=98411"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=98411"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=98411"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}