AB Komisyonunun “Avrupa Ekonomik Tahminleri 2024 Sonbahar” raporu yay\u0131mland\u0131.<\/p>\n
“Olumsuz bir ortamda yava\u015f toparlanma” ba\u015fl\u0131kl\u0131 raporda, AB ekonomisinin 2024’te y\u00fczde 0,9, 2025’te y\u00fczde 1,5, 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 1,8, Euro B\u00f6lgesi ekonomisinin ise 2024’te y\u00fczde 0,8, 2025’te y\u00fczde 1,3 ve 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 1,6 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
AB Komisyonunun bir \u00f6nceki “ilkbahar” raporunda ise AB’nin 2024’te y\u00fczde 1, 2025’te y\u00fczde 1,6, Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nin 2024’te y\u00fczde 0,8, 2025’te y\u00fczde 1,4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin edilmi\u015fti.<\/p>\n
Son raporla, AB’nin 2024 ve 2025 b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahminleri y\u00fczde 0,1 oran\u0131nda a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 y\u00f6nl\u00fc revize edildi. Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nin b\u00fcy\u00fcme tahmini 2024 i\u00e7in sabit tutulurken, 2025 i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 0,1 d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcr\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n
Alman ekonomisi k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclecek <\/b><\/p>\n
Raporda, bu y\u0131l Almanya’n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,1, Avusturya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,6, Finlandiya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,3, \u0130rlanda\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,5 ve Estonya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 k\u00fc\u00e7\u00fclece\u011fi, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,1, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,7, \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Gelecek y\u0131l Almanya’n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,7, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 0,8, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1 ve \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 2,3 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fclen raporda, 2026\u2019da Almanya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,3, Fransa\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,4, \u0130talya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 1,2 ve \u0130spanya\u2019n\u0131n y\u00fczde 2,1 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n
Enflasyon gerileyecek <\/b><\/p>\n
Raporda, enflasyonun bu y\u0131l AB’de y\u00fczde 2,6, Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nde y\u00fczde 2,4 olmas\u0131 beklendi\u011fi, 2025’te enflasyon oran\u0131n\u0131n AB’de y\u00fczde 2,4, Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nde y\u00fczde 2,1 seviyesine inece\u011fi, 2026 \u2018da ise AB\u2019de y\u00fczde 2, Euro B\u00f6lgesi\u2019nde y\u00fczde 1,9\u2019a gerileyece\u011fi tahmin edildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Uzun bir durgunluk d\u00f6neminin ard\u0131ndan AB ekonomisinin \u0131l\u0131ml\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fcmeye d\u00f6nd\u00fc\u011f\u00fc belirtilen raporda, enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f s\u00fcrecinin devam etti\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
Raporda, istihdam art\u0131\u015f\u0131 ve reel \u00fccretlerdeki toparlanman\u0131n harcanabilir gelirleri destekledi\u011fi, ancak hanehalk\u0131 t\u00fcketiminin k\u0131s\u0131tland\u0131\u011f\u0131 bildirildi.<\/p>\n
Ya\u015fam maliyetinin halen y\u00fcksek oldu\u011fu an\u0131msat\u0131lan raporda, a\u015f\u0131r\u0131 \u015foklara maruz kalman\u0131n ard\u0131ndan belirsizlik ve y\u00fcksek faiz oranlar\u0131 ortam\u0131nda hanehalklar\u0131n\u0131n gelirlerinin giderek artan bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 tasarruf etti\u011fi ifade edildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Riskler art\u0131yor <\/b><\/p>\n
Raporda, belirsizlik ve risklerin artt\u0131\u011f\u0131na dikkat \u00e7ekilerek, Rusya-Ukrayna Sava\u015f\u0131 ve Orta Do\u011fu’daki artan \u00e7at\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131n jeopolitik ve enerji g\u00fcvenli\u011fine y\u00f6nelik riskleri k\u00f6r\u00fckledi\u011fi kaydedildi.<\/p>\n
ABD’nin se\u00e7ilmi\u015f ba\u015fkan\u0131 Donald Trump’\u0131n ticaret politikalar\u0131n\u0131n da risk unsuru oldu\u011funa i\u015faret edilen raporda, \u201cTicaret ortaklar\u0131 taraf\u0131ndan korumac\u0131 \u00f6nlemlerde daha fazla art\u0131\u015f, k\u00fcresel ticareti alt\u00fcst edebilir ve AB’nin olduk\u00e7a a\u00e7\u0131k ekonomisini olumsuz etkileyebilir.” ifadesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Raporda, AB i\u00e7inde \u00fcretim sekt\u00f6r\u00fcndeki politika belirsizli\u011fi ve yap\u0131sal zorluklar\u0131n rekabet g\u00fcc\u00fcnde daha fazla kayba yol a\u00e7abilece\u011fi, bunun b\u00fcy\u00fcme ve i\u015f g\u00fcc\u00fc piyasas\u0131n\u0131 olumsuz etkileyebilece\u011fi bildirildi.<\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin durumu <\/b><\/p>\n
T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisine ili\u015fkin de\u011ferlendirmelerin de yap\u0131ld\u0131\u011f\u0131 raporda, “S\u0131k\u0131 politika duru\u015funun i\u00e7 talebi etkilemeye devam etmesi bekleniyor.” ifadesi kullan\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Raporda, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019de enflasyonun may\u0131s ay\u0131ndan beri d\u00fc\u015ft\u00fc\u011f\u00fc an\u0131msat\u0131larak, “Enflasyon beklentilerinin azalmas\u0131yla birlikte enflasyondaki d\u00fc\u015f\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcn devam etmesi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcl\u00fcyor.” de\u011ferlendirmesi yap\u0131ld\u0131.<\/p>\n
Depremle ilgili harcamalar\u0131n azalmas\u0131yla birlikte, kamu a\u00e7\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131n\u0131n beklendi\u011fi belirtilen raporda, kamu borcunun \u00f6l\u00e7\u00fcl\u00fc seyredece\u011fi belirtildi.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n
Y\u00fcksek belirsizlik ortam\u0131na ra\u011fmen dezenflasyon ve ekonomik dengelenmenin s\u00fcrece\u011fine i\u015faret edilen raporda, “T\u00fcrk ekonomisi \u015fimdiye kadar \u00e7ok y\u00fcksek jeopolitik riskleri ve belirsizli\u011fi iyi idare etti.” ifadesi yer ald\u0131.<\/p>\n
Raporda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2024’te y\u00fczde 3, 2025’te y\u00fczde 3,2, 2026\u2019da y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/p>\n
<\/p>\n
Kaynak :\u00a0Bloomberg HT<\/span><\/p>\n <\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Avrupa Birli\u011fi (AB) Komisyonu, Euro B\u00f6lgesi’nin bu y\u0131lki ekonomik b\u00fcy\u00fcme beklentisini y\u00fczde 0,8 seviyesinde tutarken, gelecek y\u0131l i\u00e7in y\u00fczde 1,3’e indirdi. Raporda, T\u00fcrkiye ekonomisinin 2024’te y\u00fczde 3, 2025’te y\u00fczde 3,2, 2026’da y\u00fczde 4 b\u00fcy\u00fcyece\u011fi \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcld\u00fc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":99786,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[2],"tags":[44,476,184,2184,798],"class_list":["post-99785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ekonomi","tag-enflasyon","tag-raporda","tag-tahmin","tag-yuzde-1","tag-yuzde-2"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=99785"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99785\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":99787,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/99785\/revisions\/99787"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/99786"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=99785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=99785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/ekamu.net\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=99785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}